A Bountiful of Hope

As the FM opened his kitty, the nation, particularly the youth, who form over 50% of the population, had lots to cheer about. Starting out with the basic need for education, where an allocation of Rs. 31,036 crore has been made for schooling, and 3675 crore for elementary education, the budgets heralds the coming of age of the Human Resource Development policies of our government. The intent to have a young educated and skilled generation is clear, with the target of raising a skilled workforce of 50 crore people by 2022. Even with a sharp increase in overall social sector spending, aimed at short term ‘good’, overall, fiscal prudence ruled the roost, so as to not burden the future generation with too much debt.

The proposal to have a new and modern India for a better tomorrow is etched deep in the budget, with 46% of the total outlay being allocated to infrastructure. Cities, the dream destination and beacon of hope for the young multitude have seen a steep, but much needed raise in budgetary allocation. The proposal to provide tax concessions on green technology such as CFLs augurs well for the long term sustainable future of our nation.

In the short run, however, the adjustment of the tax slabs will take care of bracket creep, providing the working class with a higher disposable income. This will further fuel domestic demand, especially amongst the young and the ‘nouveau riche’, who have a considerably higher marginal propensity to consume. As such, cheaper gadgets like cell phones will only add to the demand.

The partial roll-back of the stimulus, however, will mean that the economy, facing considerable inflationary expectations, and starting to overheat, can let off some steam. This will lay the roadmap for a low-inflation high growth trajectory and lead us towards a more vibrant future, something that the hebetic generation greatly desires.

PS: The abridged version of the above article appeared in TOI, Lucknow edition on 27th Feb,2010.

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The Nuances of Democracy

For the past few weeks, trouble has been brewing in Orissa, where some miscreants have attacked churches, killed and beaten up Christians. I fully and unequivocally condemn these attacks, and for that matter any sort of violence.

But what I say here today is not about the violence, but the politics of violence. No doubt it is in the interest of some groups to stoke communal passions, but what shocks me is that the Central government is supposedly considering imposing article 356 and dismissing a duly elected government. The home ministry has also sent various advisories to the state, to reign in the rowdies. I agree that the state has been lax, and that it needs to pull up its socks to provide a sense of security to all the people. The state has obviously failed to do its duty, to prevent flare-ups and to prevent loss of 'sense of security' among the minorities.

Now, look at the case of West Bengal, through all of 2007. Nandigram burned for most part of the year, and there were reports of police atrocities. Villagers were driven out of their homes, tens killed in police firing, and media was barred from going anywhere close, possibly to prevent the true state of affairs from ever coming to light. Such was the extent of the breakdown, that bloody gun battles were fought for control of villages, and the victory of the ruling party over the opposition in one such battle led the CM to comment "paying them back in their own coin" , effectively approving violence sponsored by his party. The state intelligentsia was up in arms against the Chief Minister, and there were protests nation-wide.

Now one may say, was West Bengal in 2007 not a fit case for the dismissal of the state government, which had, for the sake of development, forgotten the human factor involved, and where, the party cadres ran amok, killing, looting and burning. The only difference that I see between Orissa now, and WB then : now the violence is targeted against a particular community. Back then, anybody who stood by the villagers was attacked. The other very convenient fact: Then, the ruling party of WB was a major partner in the Central government, whereas the Orissa ruling party today is a steadfast opposition house.

So, I humbly ask, just because the present crisis has a communal shade to it, it is OK to impose President's rule, but last year, when the state itself terrorized its people, was it OK, because people of all religions were being targeted equally..

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The Order of the Phoenix

When the history of contemporary India is written, Man Mohan Singh will find a special place in the pages of history.. Never before has an Indian leader gone on to the extent of sacrificing his government for the sake of a policy issue, one that he believes will take India beyond the shackles of energy slavery, and foreign dependence. His image of an efficient and focused man is enhanced, and India looks to him for redemption.

The debate over the vote of confidence in parliament raged for over twelve hours, some nice, some not so nice moments passed, though only very few speakers managed to make an impact. The he speech by Omar Abdullah told India that its gen-next leaders were here, and that they were willing to put national interest before petty politics. Another leader who made an impact was Union minister, Lalu Yadav, who left the house pealing with roars of laughter, while putting across the point. Difficult to imagine someone like Lalu talk about the nuances of a complicated nuclear deal, but then Lalu is no ordinary politician. Am sure he will sell the deal to the rural populace back in his home state.. Amidst all this, there were the usual charges of horse-trading that accompany a trust-vote, and some evidence of the same..

While taking things into perspective, we must note that while the Leader of the Opposition attacked the government in general, and also the ruling alliance, he refrained from making any specific attacks on the deal in itself, indicating that the deal, as such has an in-principle support from them, leave aside the rhetoric.. The biggest winner is without doubt the Prime Minister, he stands tall, and now is his chance to take up the reforms agenda with a renewed vigour.. Experience shows that mid-way through their term, governments lose the will to 'govern' and then, anti-incumbency build up.. While Man Mohan Singh can be accused of the same, now, he has a chance to redeem himself, and prove his worth, not just to his party, and the nation, but the world as a whole.. He has risen like a phoenix, and the signals that crucial reforms will be put on the fast track is a sign of the same.

No brownie points for guessing the biggest loser, it has been proven beyond doubt that to do politics in India, your policies must have grass-root support and be connected to the people, unlike certain 'leaders' who still talk about text-book philosophies, and draw their power from a mysterious source, not linked in any way to the electorate. Lasting impressions of this debate will be the impartial stance of the speaker, and the fact that despite the potshots taken at each other during the debate on the motion of confidence, here they are, the PM and the Leader of the Opposition, greeting, and smiling at each other, less than 24 hours after the acrimonious debate. This I think represents the pivot on which Indian democracy is based upon.


With this vote, the parliament has voted to give us access to the cleanest source of energy available, and examples from world leaders in nuclear technology show that not only is it efficient, it is also much cheaper than conventional sources.. I know we are not known for carpe diem, and it may take us much more than a decade to reap the benefits of this deal, but so it the case with any major policy.. Remember Rajiv Gandhi, and the computer revolution. The real fruits came at the turn of the millennium, almost a decade after he was no more.. But still, I have my hopes based on the fact that India has a good PM, and he is doing something right..

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A Good riddance

Finally, the Leftists are out of the government. I am of the opinion that this is probably the best thing that could have happened to Manmohan Singh. For too long have the Left held his policies at ransom, for too long have the reforms been stalled by the lousy agenda of the Left. In short, for too long have they had power without responsibility.

The time has come to show the world what Manmohan Singh is capable of. And now, it is not too difficult to go ahead with the reforms, since government has more than six months at hand, and none of the allies will make too much noise, since they will have extracted their pound of flesh. Experience shows, 100 days are sufficient for full-fledged reforms, and our PM thankfully has much more than that. Plus none of the allies have ideological commitments like the communists. So let the government get its act right for once, and start on the reforms in earnest.

It is a known fact that most development schemes like the NREG and the JNURM haven't really shown results, while there has been no tangible progress on major infrastructural projects like the DFCs. Whether by a political master-stroke by our PM, or a blunder by Mr Karat, or by plain coincidence, here is a chance, for the Congress, for the PM, for Sonia, and for India. We should not let it go.

PS : I am also of the opinion that the communists would have deserted the government anyway before the elections, to beat off anti-incumbency. The N-deal was just an excuse, price rise could also have served the same purpose, only that parties like SP would not have come forward to support a government rendered minority by inflation. So again, if at all, the Left got its calculations wrong.

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Mid-summer crisis-II

Our esteemed economist turned Prime Minister, and his competent team consisting of FM P. Chidambaram and Planning Commission Dy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia among others are sitting pretty on a barrel of oil, and a small spark could throw the whole Indian economy into disarray.

They have taken months to react to the rising crude oil prices, and their actions seem at best half-hearted. What they need to wake up to is that the oil subsidy costs the 'aam aadmi' more than if he were directly paying for it at international prices. I will explain this in a bit, but firstly, the government sees petroleum as a huge source of revenue in the form of taxation, thus while the under-recovery on a litre of petrol after the increase is around Rs 15 per litre, the tax on it is almost the same amount. This is blasphemy. You collect revenues from it for your coffers, and then say that the oil companies are bleeding..

In any case, at the outset, we must ask, who is benefiting from the subsidy?? Just so you know, it is not the poor in the country. It is the rich, who drive fuel guzzling vehicles, and it is the oil producing nations who are laughing all the way to the bank. Now lets see the consequences of raising the domestic prices to market levels. The first effect would be reduced oil consumption, since people would be more conservative if they had to pay more. This is good for everyone, the world, since this leads to reduced carbon footprint, and for the people, well, its better than you think it is. The government will now have a lot more moolah in the treasury to spend on actual development schemes, like the JNURM or the NREG scheme among others (We know that the NREG implementation is anything but successful, but still, more poor people would benefit out of it than oil subsidy). In any case, with the oil subsidy in place, the government is just giving fabulous discounts on oil to the rich, the ones who use it to go on long drives after an exotic dinner(most of which is wated, by the way). Thus, the need of the hour is to progressively abolish the subsidy.

The thing that the Indian public doesn't seem to understand very well, is that what the government giveth with one hand, it taketh with the other. They don't realize that it would be a lot better if the fuel subsidy money was instead spent in building better infrastructure, like mass-rapid transit systems for the urban areas, and better road/rail connectivity for the rural areas, and freight corridors for the inter-country transportation.. If this is how the cash would be used, we would reduce our dependence on oil, also reducing our national imports considerably.. By the way, all these infrastructure solutions could use electricity, which, if the N-deal goes through, we should plan to have a surplus of. So effectively, we are giving up good infrastructure for cheap oil. I guess the choice is for the people to make.

Anyway, I guess it is time for the government to make some hard decisions, and move away from what I can only describe as oil-harakiri. The concrete plan of action should involve a 5 year structure, where the oil-prices would be gradually brought to the international level, and parallely, a rapid action infrastructure development force, which would build enough infrastructure so as to not hurt the people from lack of personal vehicles for transportation. In the mean-time, the N-plants should be set up asap, sice they will provide us with the energy security to our country. This is the road to sustained energy security, and growth, with the least carbon foor-print.


PS : And whoever said that N-deal in a non-issue in elections is unaware of the fact that this issue is directly related to the BSP(Bijli, Sadak, Paani), something close to the Indian public's heart. With the right kind of publicity, I see no reason why this will not garner votes. Even as I write this, the government has begun poll preparations in earnest, and that seems a step in the right direction. Also, people who think the nuclear power would not ensure energy security, but only dependence on NSG, note that India plans to have all its second generation N-plants based on Thorium, which India has plenty of. So, it is a matter of around three decades. Anyway, oil isn't going to last forever, is it???

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Hail the free people

The world is changing.
I feel it in the water.
I feel it in the earth.
I smell it in the air.

For how else do you explain these phenomenon.. Whether it is the nascent democracies of Nepal and Bhutan, or countries like USA or India, seasoned democracies, the will of the people reigns supreme.. There is no other way to explain an action like this in Bihar, India. Or, the election victories of former insurgent Maoists in Nepal. Or the rise of one who represents change, and hope..

To me, all of these mean just one thing : That the world is maturing as a democracy.. The time of the people has come..

PS : The only thing is wish for is that the communist regime will take a more open view to the autonomy talks, and that protesters will not be run down with tanks..

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Long live the quotas

Whether we like it or not, the quotas are here to stay, for a very very long time, probably longer than our lifetimes.. But then, the Supreme Court did a good thing, by laying clearly the ground rules for the quota based admissions..

The problem, however, lies in implementation of these policies. The SC clearly says that anyone who has completed UG education cannot be considered backward, and thus PG courses should not have quota. But that doesn't deter Arjun Singh, does it.. Tell me, someone who got into an IIT because of the quota, will also get into an IIM right after that because of the same quota policy.. Now this is downright unfair, Right to equality be damned!! Also, we all know the outcomes of the pereodic re-considerations of the reservation policy.. Every decade the government dutifully extends the SC/ST reservation by ten more years, and the same will also be done for OBCs from now on..

And then, some things which were not totally expected happened. Our very own beloved sleepy head, opportunist ex-PM said : The creamy layer must be kept out of SC/ST reservations too.. Bingo, the man I least expected to hear this from has spoken, and sensibly for a change.. Politics indeed makes strange bed-fellows : logic and Deve Gowda!!!

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We have the power

The summer is here, and the heat can already be felt.. Met department says it will be one of the hottest, and given the planning and execution of our government, be prepared to face uninterrupted power cuts all along.. The country faces an acute shortage of electricity, so much so that many a times, the grids are in danger of tripping owing to excess demand..

It is in this back-ground that the Indo-US nuclear deal becomes all the more important.. I know even if the deal goes through without hiccups, and the government moves at a fast-pace on the execution, it is still a long ten years before we can see power from the reactors.. But then, atleast ten years later, we will have power... Going by the current rate of capacity addition of conventional sources, I do not see a major change in scenario anytime soon..

But then, everyone has gotten their priorities wrong.. The left thinks it will be able to win votes thanks to its anti-US stands.. West Bengal, will take time to forget the Nandigram episode, and Kerala will give left the incumbency heat.. Another major minus for the left, the delimitation will reduce the number of rural seats, a traditional vote-bank of the left.. On the other hand, the Congress has made its peace, and is infact promoting darkness in the villages.. This only makes me laugh, because instead of saying we helped electrify so many villages, they are saying, we failed in rural electrification, and now we give them cheap kerosene for their lamps.. The saffron brigade, now opposing the deal, will operationalize the same, if it comes to power the next time. This way, it can take credit for the deal...

The Left's concerns about the US are certainly more of a mental roadblock than anything else.. Anything to do with Uncle Sam (Aunty Sam???) is taboo.. And the Prime Minister's assurance is enough for me to know that our strategic interests are not jeopardized..

I write this, not because I advocate the deal since I am not aware of the nitty-gritties of the same, but because I think that energy security is very important for a growing economy.. And not just in terms of oil.. We need to do every bit that we can to make sure that India's growth story does not hit a road-bump due to energy shortage.. If it takes a nuclear deal, so be it..

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Chugging along the slow lane

Lalu managed to do what I had expected him to do.. Live up to my expectations of not being able to deliver.. As he read out the railway budget for the year 2008-09, I could only stare at the TV in disbelief.. Does this guy know what he is talking about??

I strongly believe that for the country to continue its growth story, the railway infrastructure in the country must grow atleast 2-3% faster.. However, the railways plan to lay only 3500kms of new lines in the coming year.. This comes to me as too little, too late. There is no plans for real capacity augmentation on the country's most busiest sectors. Just changing the signaling systems is not enough. With plenty of railway land on both sides of existing track, laying of new tracks should be done much faster. I would love to see IR build new lines even at half the rate of its Chinese counterpart.

The reduction in passenger fares is a sham that most people fail to see through. The capacity of the existing coaches is being increased by 15-25%. This means more people cramped up in the same space. After such an increase in the carrying capacity per coach, how difficult is it to cut the fares by 3-7%, that too in the non-peak season. What a gimmick!!!

The introduction of the 63 new trains seems like a good move, but without the required infrastructure growth, would it be possible to ensure timely running of trains.. Or the cleanliness of toilets on board?? This apart, I see Bihar, and to some extent Tamil Nadu gobbling up a lions share of these new trains. Regionalism?? Nah, they are just taking the divisive politics to a new level..

What Lalu has effectively done over the last 5 years is disastrous, and his successor will inherit a overloaded, over fatigued network of rail lines, not to mention the sixth pay commission recommendations , which could topple the boat.. I have a feeling even if the UPA manages to win in 2009, Lalu may not want to be the railway minister again!!!

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Kicking Ass

Thats what the Democrats plan to do later this year.. Media reports suggests that this year is going to be the year of the donkey.. What remains to be seen is whether it will be a female donkey, or whether it will be an African-American one.. Either way, it will be a first.. Any change will be for the better, for it will be tough to be worse than Bush ;)

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Hindi hain hum, watan hai, hindustan hamara

This report left me stunned.. I don't know if I should be feeling happy or sad. When China can have a national language that is spoken by just about half of the country, why cant Hindi be our National Language.. Why did people undergo self-immolation, buses have to be torched, and students killed in police firing..

And I must admit, all this, it turned out, was not entirely bad for the country. We all learned English, and were able to become a global force in the services sector. But who knows, just like Japan or Germany, we could have become a global hub even with a national language apart from English. But the greatest fallout of this violent agitation is that we will, as a country, never have the national integration as envisioned by our freedom fighter forefathers. For a lot of people I know, the state still comes before the nation. And from my personal experiences, I can say this feeling exists mostly in the non-Hindi speaking states.


And to all who think I oppose local languages, please note, I dont. I favor the classical status to Tamil, and the government support for regional literature. But this does not mean that everyone is taught their mother tounge as the first language under the education system. We should be teaching English as a first language, Hindi as second language, and the native language as the third language. This is only fair to communicate with the world, the nation, and your neighbor. Unfortunately, these priorities are applied in reverse today.

The sentiments of 1965 linger today, and anyone speaking Hindi or for that matter any language apart from Tamil is given stares, and occasionally wrong directions in the land of Periyar.. I just hope we have another Iron-Man, who will perform the thankless task of national integration, just like Sardar Patel did the job of political integration. Or may be I could do it.

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Old is not Gold!!

Under the Indian Constitution, every government employee must retire at 60. Without beating about the bush, I ask Why?? Who says that an employee becomes incapable of serving the country at 60.. Is there a scientific basis for this law?? I don't think so.. Look at this report, in particular the last two paras. Its stunning. While the average life expectancy since independence has gone up by almost 25 years, the retirement age has risen by just 2 years..

Now, its another matter if the employee wants to retire early, there is always the VRS. Medical retirement also continues.. But for someone who wants to continue working, why not let them.. If they were fit at 59 yrs and 364 days, they definitely don't become incapacitated by aging a day!!! After all, in our country, a fifty-something is called a next-generation leader when it comes to politics.. Then why not the bureaucracy.. I personally think the retirement age should not be a fixed number, but pegged to the average life expectancy of the country. If we live longer, we work longer, simple..

Lastly, when we talk of Young India, and "Bharat Uday", we forget that India, by our own standards, would have been deemed fit to retire on 15th August, 2007, the day it turned sixty..

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Red and Saffron

Unusual as it may sound, the Red brigade in the country desperately wants the saffron outfits to win the latest state elections.. And this is because : They want to stall the Indo-US nuke deal..

If the BJP wins Gujarat, and also the politically lesser important Himachal, there is no way the Congress will brave a General Election, not for the sake of the nuke deal anyway.. And this will also strengthen the hands of the anti-nuke-deal lobby, since the saffronites have joined hands with the comrades on this one.. However, if Mr Modi's charisma amongst the youth and the women fails to work for him, and the Congress actually manages to pull off the biggest political upset of the year, we will see a much meeker Left, being arm-twisted by the Congress.. This will give Madame the much needed confidence to threaten the Left with the elections, which the Left, after Nandigram is ill-prepared to face..

So now, a State election, seemingly fought on local issues, will have a major impact on the country's future.. If the BJP win, forget the nuke deal, the government will bow meekly to the left.. If the Congress wins, most likely the deal will go through.. In case the left is still adamant, "Dus Janpath" will not hesitate to call for polls.. Anyway, Rahul is waiting..

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Corporate Government, Anyone??

I have had this question asked to me a lot of times : wouldn't it be a lot better if we had a corporate style governance.. And while the proponents of this theory list out the obvious benefits like quick decisions, faster development, more transparent functioning etc, there is one aspect that they completely fail to recognize, and that is the social responsibility of the government..

If you look at how corporates work, they will feed the bread-winning horse the most, which is very fair on their part.. For eg, if a certain division is making most of the company's profits, that division will also get the maximum budget.. Abberation like the one in the case of Apple Computers, where the profit making Apple II funded the eventually proved disastrous Apple III for a long time, and caused a survival crisis, are considered poor managements decisions..

But now, consider a government setup in a country like India.. The profits will come in from the industries, the commerce centered around the cities, the taxes paid by the urban citizens etc etc.. However, most of this money is not spent back on them, unlike a corporate, but spent on rural education, health care etc, which by any model, will never be profitable.. That however, does not mean our money must not be spent on it, for we can not expect a village school in a tribal area to be economically viable, this just means that as a civil society, we must accept this form of subsidy, for these children of lesser mortals cannot be, and should not be denied education for want of funds.. Same goes with rural health care, and a variety of other such schemes..

And if the country was indeed run by corporates, you would see a six lane and six track Golden Quadrilateral, lined up with all the industries, while the rest of the country would languish in the dark.. And after this, they might also claim to have no budgetary deficit, which shouldn't come as a surprise.. What we really need is better planning and investment in the rural areas, to make them self-sufficient and economically a "non-white elephant", atleast in three to four decades.. Till such a thing happens, my fellow brethren, we must share the burden for the greater good of the country..

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