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Red and Saffron
Unusual as it may sound, the Red brigade in the country desperately wants the saffron outfits to win the latest state elections.. And this is because : They want to stall the Indo-US nuke deal..
If the BJP wins Gujarat, and also the politically lesser important Himachal, there is no way the Congress will brave a General Election, not for the sake of the nuke deal anyway.. And this will also strengthen the hands of the anti-nuke-deal lobby, since the saffronites have joined hands with the comrades on this one.. However, if Mr Modi's charisma amongst the youth and the women fails to work for him, and the Congress actually manages to pull off the biggest political upset of the year, we will see a much meeker Left, being arm-twisted by the Congress.. This will give Madame the much needed confidence to threaten the Left with the elections, which the Left, after Nandigram is ill-prepared to face..
So now, a State election, seemingly fought on local issues, will have a major impact on the country's future.. If the BJP win, forget the nuke deal, the government will bow meekly to the left.. If the Congress wins, most likely the deal will go through.. In case the left is still adamant, "Dus Janpath" will not hesitate to call for polls.. Anyway, Rahul is waiting..
2 comments:
Even if congress had won the election i guess they wouldn't have taken the pains of dissolving the parliament.. How many people in India actually understand what the nuclear deal is all about and how it affects them..? I would say hardly say 0.05%. These are the times when govts fall for just for simple reasons like increasing onion prices... thats wat ppl understand. Elections are fought on simply reasons or something ppl see and understand. Also none of the allies would have permitted cong dissolve the parliament( they have put lotsa money during elections and they need to get it back, none of the regional parties are sure to return back if elections are held today).. Even if congress had "absolute majority", the chances of them going for elections was really remote... Only the media created a sensation out of it.. May it was the cong's game plan to say this, so by threatening the Left about elections, the cong would tilt them towards the deal. Now they would have realized that the left guys are tough nuts to crack.. :)
I think they would have threatened the left with a call for elections had they won both Gujrat and Himachal. And that wouldn't be an empty threat, mind you..
And yes, elections are fought on local simpler issues. But then, inflation is under control, we had a good monsoon last year ( its time before the next one comes), India did well in the T20 World cup and Indo-Pak series, law and order seems to be better than the worst.. These all negate the Waterloo of all governments in India, the anti-incumbency factor.
In fact, the one person who has actually prevented a mid-term election is Mayawati. The Congress is quite wary of Behenji, and her growing clout outside UP, that Madam herself estimates around 60-70 seats to the elephant in the next Lok Sabha as per current trends. This would make Mayawati king maker, which is anyway much worse than the left being king maker.
And anyway, the Congress is in doldrums in UP, where Rahul baba's magic has failed to work as expected. This, and the state of affairs in Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra will prompt the government to meekly bow to the left..
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