Thursday, June 26, 2008

Mid-summer crisis-II

Our esteemed economist turned Prime Minister, and his competent team consisting of FM P. Chidambaram and Planning Commission Dy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia among others are sitting pretty on a barrel of oil, and a small spark could throw the whole Indian economy into disarray.

They have taken months to react to the rising crude oil prices, and their actions seem at best half-hearted. What they need to wake up to is that the oil subsidy costs the 'aam aadmi' more than if he were directly paying for it at international prices. I will explain this in a bit, but firstly, the government sees petroleum as a huge source of revenue in the form of taxation, thus while the under-recovery on a litre of petrol after the increase is around Rs 15 per litre, the tax on it is almost the same amount. This is blasphemy. You collect revenues from it for your coffers, and then say that the oil companies are bleeding..

In any case, at the outset, we must ask, who is benefiting from the subsidy?? Just so you know, it is not the poor in the country. It is the rich, who drive fuel guzzling vehicles, and it is the oil producing nations who are laughing all the way to the bank. Now lets see the consequences of raising the domestic prices to market levels. The first effect would be reduced oil consumption, since people would be more conservative if they had to pay more. This is good for everyone, the world, since this leads to reduced carbon footprint, and for the people, well, its better than you think it is. The government will now have a lot more moolah in the treasury to spend on actual development schemes, like the JNURM or the NREG scheme among others (We know that the NREG implementation is anything but successful, but still, more poor people would benefit out of it than oil subsidy). In any case, with the oil subsidy in place, the government is just giving fabulous discounts on oil to the rich, the ones who use it to go on long drives after an exotic dinner(most of which is wated, by the way). Thus, the need of the hour is to progressively abolish the subsidy.

The thing that the Indian public doesn't seem to understand very well, is that what the government giveth with one hand, it taketh with the other. They don't realize that it would be a lot better if the fuel subsidy money was instead spent in building better infrastructure, like mass-rapid transit systems for the urban areas, and better road/rail connectivity for the rural areas, and freight corridors for the inter-country transportation.. If this is how the cash would be used, we would reduce our dependence on oil, also reducing our national imports considerably.. By the way, all these infrastructure solutions could use electricity, which, if the N-deal goes through, we should plan to have a surplus of. So effectively, we are giving up good infrastructure for cheap oil. I guess the choice is for the people to make.

Anyway, I guess it is time for the government to make some hard decisions, and move away from what I can only describe as oil-harakiri. The concrete plan of action should involve a 5 year structure, where the oil-prices would be gradually brought to the international level, and parallely, a rapid action infrastructure development force, which would build enough infrastructure so as to not hurt the people from lack of personal vehicles for transportation. In the mean-time, the N-plants should be set up asap, sice they will provide us with the energy security to our country. This is the road to sustained energy security, and growth, with the least carbon foor-print.


PS : And whoever said that N-deal in a non-issue in elections is unaware of the fact that this issue is directly related to the BSP(Bijli, Sadak, Paani), something close to the Indian public's heart. With the right kind of publicity, I see no reason why this will not garner votes. Even as I write this, the government has begun poll preparations in earnest, and that seems a step in the right direction. Also, people who think the nuclear power would not ensure energy security, but only dependence on NSG, note that India plans to have all its second generation N-plants based on Thorium, which India has plenty of. So, it is a matter of around three decades. Anyway, oil isn't going to last forever, is it???

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Quote Unquote

Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.

One of the most memorable movie quotes of all times, i would say. Definitely my personal favorite. This movie taught me how to believe, in oneself, even in the face of adversity.. And I confess, I cried in the scene where Andy "crawled through a river of shit and came out clean on the other side". Such is the the power of hope, I guess.

My second favorite quote of all times is undoubtedly from the movie series Spiderman, and it goes : "Whatever comes our way, whatever battle we have raging inside us, we always have a choice. It's the choices that make us who we are, and we can always choose to do what's right". This one taught me how to make choices in life, after all life is all about choices(at least in India anyway!!). Then of course there is the LOTR trilogies, which I must have seen some umpteen times, almost to the point that I remember some of the quotes. Actually, most of them.. Geek, I know!!!

So, tell me which movies have influenced you the most?? And the one movie quote that you can remember on the top of your head :)


PS : I have another confession. I know that for most people, movies are more like watch and forget, but I get quite influenced by movies, although only by the ones that carry a message. Doesn't mean I don't like laugh-riot movies, but that is left for another day :)



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Friday, June 20, 2008

Yes, Prime Minister!!!

Our PM is emulating his predecessor in his threat to resign if the government is not allowed to have its way.. Well, history goes on to say that Vajpayee emerged stronger with that threat, but Manmohan Singh looks even weaker, going and complaining to Mama Sonia, rather than putting it across to the Congress Parliamentary Party or the Congress Working Comittee. And then, all the NDA constituents had fallen meekly in line, but this is seven years later, and the comrades are no ordinary allies.

Only time will tell what the fate of the N-deal will be, but for once, I feel that India is not bothered by the prospect of mid-term elections. Our democracy has considerably matured with all the coalition governments of the past decade, and the humble citizens know that whatever be the outcome, the prospects are bright. While this may seem overtly optimistic, I am considerably pleased by this, because, this to me is an implicit trust in the foundations of democracy.

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Saturday, June 14, 2008

Mid-summer crisis

A premier cellular service provider says "Barriers break when people talk".. And this is so true, now more than ever before.. With the Gurjars at the negotiating table, the trouble at ground zero seems to be ebbing. The main fall-out of this : trains have started plying again, and mind you, this is very important to keep the economy on track..

But the point I make here is entirely different.. What is it that will finally solve this impasse.. The Gurjar leaders have gone on record and said "ya to ST status de do, ya goli maar do".. With such being the ferocity of their demand, an obvious solution seems unlikely.. What is it that the Raje government can offer to help restore peace and normality.. I do not know how this impasse will end, but as long as the two sides keep talking, I am sure some solution will be found.. It has to be a compromise for both sides, but the state government must act fast and swift, to ensure the common public is not inconvenienced..

A question to all the intellectuals who are reading this.. What would you do if you were heading the government, while a particular section of the society resorted to similar voilence and economic shutdown.. I personally believe that if calls for negotiations fail, and the violence continues unabated, a complete blockade of that area might be the way to break up the agitators.. No power, no water, phone networks down, and then restrict supplies into the region. This should continue till the agitators walk the extra mile to the negotiating table.. What is important here is to let the people know that while they have a fundamental right to a peaceful gathering to put forth their demands, holding the State ransom and restoring to violence will not get them anywhere..

I am sure some of you will disagree with my methods here, but this is a last resort, to make sure a solution is found through dialog, not through the lathis.. In any case, please do leave a comment what is it that you would have done, if you were to find yourself at the helm of affairs when such trouble broke out..

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Sunday, June 8, 2008

Sense and Sensibility

The nation is at war.. A silent war.. An economic war.. The prices of food are rising, since the agriculture output has been stagnant for years.. The oil prices have doubled in less than a year, and the government cant do much about it.. Inflation in general is rising, and again, the powers to be seem helpless.. Unfortunately, having a seasoned economist at the helm of affairs hasn't helped our nation much..

It is in the midst of a situation like this that our PM called for energy conservation by all Indians. This may seem like a desperate measure, may be it is, but the fact of the matter is, Indian public lacks basic common sense, and nothing much seems to be happening about correcting this.. The more educated the people, the more they waste.. Yes, its true, countrymen, the educated class seems to care a hoot about the general scenario.. The poor even today save resources, for their personal economic gains, but the rich it seems can afford to waste... A TV channel did a quick check on a successful 26 year old guy in Pune, who believes in splurging, and he says : After I work hard, I deserve to enjoy. Perfectly alright. You deserve to enjoy, but not waste Sir!!

There are umpteen examples, starting from the most myriad of things : leaving ACs and fans on unnecessarily, using a light at 3 in the afternoon on a sunny day in a brightly sunlit room, geysers on 24x7, keeping ignition on at 180 second traffic lights, keeping the refrigerator door open for minutes at a stretch, half of the dinner wasted every night, keeping the tap open while brushing etc, I could just go on and on.. These are minuscule things, I must say, but the collective cost of all these on our nation, and planet in general is huge.. But not many care : "I am paying for it, so"..

In crisis stricken times,
our government deserves our support, and we need to chip in to make sure our next generation has a better future.. Well, my brethren, countrymen, let us join hands together to do our bit, not just for the nation, but for the planet at large. Every little bit counts, make sure you do yours.

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